
Annual report 2021 - Norwegian Property ASA
Sustainability report Page 94
demand for renewable energy and the increased
energy prices, one can assume that increased
power production will become more attractive to
the suppliers. However, it is expected that the
energy consumption will increase more than the
energy production until 2030 as there are long
planning- and licensing processes for new power
production. This assumption has been accounted
for in NVE’s energy marked analysis, and it is
projected that the energy price will be lower than
50 øre/kWh in the longer term (after 2040) as
renewable power production in Europe increases.
In 2021, Norwegian Property had an electricity
consumption of 62,667 MWh in the common
areas of its buildings. With energy prices more
than doubling in the coming years, NPRO’s
operational costs are likely to increase in a
medium timeframe. Similarly, NPRO’s tenants will
have increased operating costs, which might
affect how new lease agreements are defined in
terms of rent. It is challenging to predict how such
a steep power price increase might change the
market dynamics and tenants’ willingness to pay
rent at the same rates as NPRO has defined in its
agreements as of today. Increased prices on
energy might also lead to increased investments
in more energy efficient buildings, or in upgrading
buildings that are already in NPRO’s portfolio.
Both of which might mitigate the risk of tenants
demanding lower rent due to higher power prices.
About 40 countries and more than 20 cities, states
and provinces already use carbon pricing
mechanisms, with more countries planning to
implement them in the future. The choice of the
instrument will depend on national and economic
circumstances. However, as carbon pricing is seen
as a key policy mechanism to curb and mitigate
the dangerous impacts of greenhouse gas
emissions and drive investments towards cleaner
and more efficient alternatives, the EU
Commission has stated that the EU ETS
allowances in the market will be reduced by 61
per cent by 2030, compared to 2005.
Furthermore, the Commission proposes to apply
emissions trading in other sectors through a
separate new system, to build on the result of the
current trading system.
For society to be able to limit global warming to
well-below 2°C it will become more expensive to
pollute. An increased carbon price for activities
already included in the EU ETS pose a modest risk
to Norwegian Property. Seeing that the
construction of buildings is not a substantial part
of NPRO’s business model as of today, an increase
in carbon pricing will not constitute a considerable
extra cost for NPRO in the medium- or long-term.
However, new sectors might be included in the
mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms. The
carbon price for companies subject to the EU ETS
is expected to increase in advanced economies
between 2025-2040, reaching NOK 1,300/tonne in
2040 in the Sustainable Development Scenario. In
the Net Zero Emissions Scenario, carbon prices are
in place in all regions, rising by 2050 to an average
of NOK 2,200/tonne (USD 250). The Norwegian
Government recommends companies and
activities not subject to the EU ETS to use a price
of NOK 2,083/tonne in 2040 when putting a price
on their emissions. Moreover, the Norwegian
Government recommend companies conducting
sensitivity analyses to test future resilience
against climate change by using a price on carbon
of NOK 5,940/tonne in 2040 and NOK 9,029/tonne
in 2050. If activities within commercial real estate
are included in the mandatory carbon pricing
mechanisms, NPRO’s operating costs will increase.
Narrative business-as-usual 4°C (RCP 8.5/SSP5-
8.5 & BAU)
The 4°C business-as-usual scenario is dominated
by increasing physical risks, due to a lack of
coordinated policy actions to limit climate change.
In this scenario, economic growth is preferred
over climate action overconsumption of resources
continues. The world is still dependent on fossil
fuels and energy intensity continues to be high.
The growth of greenhouse gas emissions will
cause further warming and long-lasting changes in
all components of the climate system, increasing
the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible
impacts for people and ecosystems. Consumers
are not prioritising climate in their decision
making. The ambition for economic growth is not
met, as GDP losses occur due to increased
physical risks as the temperatures rise. As the
globe is warming up, the severity and frequency