Annual Report 2021 Saga Pure ASA
3
Black swans on a string
Much can be said about the year that we have now laid behind us, but
if I’m to sum it up in one word it’s “turbulence”.
Navigating 2021 as an investor, especially one focusing on green
technologies, has been like sailing through a rocky strait in stormy
weather with alluring sirens calling from all directions. There has
certainly not been a lack of green solutions to invest in, each backed
up by skillfully made investor presentations, one shinier than the
other. The safest and quickest way to lose our money would have
been to spread them evenly on all 150 companies that came our way.
We set our course late 2020, when we saw where the market was
headed, and have stuck with the course during 2021, maintaining an
extremely conservative investment approach, spending more time
working actively with the investments we made, instead of chasing
the next shiny object. This took a healthy portion of discipline. Now,
knowing how it all went, we’re happy we stayed the course.
Saga Pure has evolved over the year, and grown from a start-up
company with only a few employees to a young, green investment
company with a team of highly skilled and extremely motivated
individuals. It has been a privilege and lots of fun to work with the
growing team; with vastly different backgrounds and personalities,
there are no guarantees for harmony, certainly not peak
performance – but we have managed to achieve just that.
It’s impossible to look back at 2021 without a few words about the
Covid-19 pandemic. It lasted longer than everyone expected, and
although it took its toll both in number of lives and shaking up the
economy, throughout the year the world started to see the light at
the end of the tunnel as vaccines were produced in record numbers,
along with the virus mutating into less harmful variants.
If Covid-19 is the biggest black swan we have seen since the last
world war, the change it brought to environmental consciousness
and momentum left many, including myself, to ponder if it was a big,
fat green swan in disguise. But swans are fickle. Although they are
beautiful as far as birds are concerned, and move gracefully around
on the water, they have a temperament which is extremely difficult
to predict, and certainly unpleasant to be exposed to.
The green boom and bust we have seen over the last two years has
many similarities to what happened in the IT sector 20 years ago.
Although the IT sector went through a bubble, it didn’t mean that IT
was a bad idea. It’s exactly the same way with green technologies,
and while IT was more of a nice-to-have, green solutions are a need-
to-have. With the capital being directed into this area now, we are
confident that we’ll see the recovery for this sector earlier and
stronger than what we saw for IT.
On the policy side of things, we saw many important steps being
made over the course of 2021. Early in the year, EU launched “Fit for
55”; EU’s latest ambition with regards to emission reductions, going
for 55% reduction by 2040 instead of the earlier stated goal of 40%.
The IPCC also released their sixth assessment report, stating that we
might surpass 1.5°C already before 2030, one decade earlier than
predicted in 2018, and to make the message crystal clear, the UN
Secretary-General António Guterres summed up the findings as “a
code red for humanity”.
The climate disaster we are steadily headed straight towards with
eyes wide open reminds me of the following quote from the historian
and philosopher Thomas Carlyle:
“By nature man hates change;
seldom will he quit his old home
till it has actually fallen around his ears.”
The movie “Don’t Look Up” released toward the end of 2021
illustrates the above in its fullest, darkest extent. Let’s more than just
hope that the world will prove both Carlyle and the disaster movies
wrong.
With the world gradually returning to a new normal over the course
of 2021, we have seen emissions rise again. While the pandemic
certainly accelerated the development towards renewable energy,
transformation of our energy systems takes time. The inherent
inertia of a vast and complex system built-up over centuries makes
change more difficult than if we were just building the energy system
from scratch. However, with an increasing number of low and zero
emission ways of traveling manufacturing our necessities, it’s more
about having the right incentives to make the change happen rather
sooner than later – to ensure progress along with a thriving nature
and a healthy environment.
One of the tools which is helping nudge the world in the right
direction is the EU emission trading system (EU ETS), where a cap is
set on CO2-emissions, and allowances issued to various industries,
and an opening for trading of those CO2 allowances. Until recently
the CO2-prices have been too low for this to have a meaningful effect.
During 2021 however, we saw the CO2-prices increase significantly,
reaching levels where the system truly has an effect. In making all
fossil economic activities more expensive, that also meant making
our still heavily fossil-dependent electricity more expensive.