
Group management report | Consolidated financial statements | Management report | Annual financial statements | Service information
VIENNA INSURANCE GROUP AG Wiener Versicherung Gruppe
Expected development and risks of the Group
SIGNIFICANT RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES
The risk management system is firmly anchored in the
management culture of the Company and is based on a
clearly defined, conservative risk policy, extensive risk ex-
pertise, a developed set of risk management tools and risk-
based Managing Board decisions.
The detailed risk report for VIG Insurance Group is provided
in the notes to the consolidated financial statements start-
ing on page 82. For information on the financial instruments
used, please see the notes to the consolidated financial
statements (Principles of significant accounting policies)
and the risk report starting on page 82.
EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT – OUTLOOK FOR 2021
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Subject to considerable uncertainty, and taking into ac-
count the extension of containment measures in the 1
st
quarter of 2021, on the one hand, and the hoped-for effects
of the vaccination campaign on the other, the IMF expects
a global recovery of 5.5% in 2021, with the developed
economies expected to grow 4.3% and the emerging mar-
kets by 6.3%. With respect to the eurozone, Erste Group
expects growth of 4.0% in 2021. In Austria, Erste Group
analysts see another recession in the 1
st
quarter of 2021. A
recovery is not expected to start until the 2
nd
quarter of 2021.
Based on these forecasts, Erste Group reduced its GDP
forecast for 2021 slightly downwards from 3.4% to 3.0%. It
expects GDP growth to increase to 3.4% in 2022. In spite
of the gradual opening of the economy, unemployment is
expected to rise (5.6%), partly due to the phase-out of
short-time work schemes.
Central and Eastern Europe is expected to record average
regional growth of 3.8% in 2021, naturally including support
from base effects. In spite of this recovery, wealth losses
due to the COVID-19 pandemic are not expected to be re-
covered until 2022 at best. The Erste Group scenario fore-
casts GDP growth ranging from 5.0% in Serbia to 3.3% in
the Czech Republic. Inflationary trends should be visible in
the region, as everywhere else, but should initially be limited
to temporary effects and remain within central bank
tolerances in all markets. Central and Eastern Europe is
expected to record overall inflation of 2.6%, with the lowest
rate in Slovenia (0.8%), while Hungary is expected to be at
the upper end with 3.7%. The increase in the un-
employment rate expected for Central and Eastern Europe
in 2021 (5.7%) should contribute to the moderate infla-
tionary pressure before the employment situation improves
in 2022.
OUTLOOK FOR VIG INSURANCE GROUP
As a market leader in Central and Eastern Europe,
VIG Insurance Group with its more than 25,000 employees
is in an excellent position to take advantage of the
opportunities available in this region and the long-term
growth options they offer. It remains committed to its prov-
en business strategy of profitable growth. Based on the
values of diversity, customer proximity and responsibility,
VIG insurance companies want to use their successful
management principles to strengthen and further increase
their market shares. This includes both organic growth and
growth by acquisitions, particularly if an opportunity arises
to strategically expand the existing portfolio or to take
advantage of economies of scale. The goal is to increase
market share to a minimum of 10% in Poland, Hungary,
Croatia and Serbia in the medium term. This goal was
already achieved in Serbia in 2016. In November 2020, VIG
Insurance Group signed a share purchase agreement with
the Dutch company Aegon N.V. to acquire its companies in
Hungary, Poland, Romania and Turkey for EUR 830 million.
The transaction includes insurance companies, pension
funds and asset management and service companies. The
acquisition will make VIG Insurance Group the market
leader in Hungary for the first time, giving it a market share
of more than 19%. It will also enter the life insurance
business in Turkey, and with the acquisition of the pension
fund companies in Hungary, Poland and Romania it will
strengthen its activities in the area of retirement provisions.
The acquisition will increase the customer base by
4.5 million. The transaction is subject to the necessary
regulatory and competition approvals and is expected to be
formally concluded in the 2
nd
half of 2021.
The strategic measures and initiatives set by the work pro-
gramme Agenda 2020 – business model optimisation, en-
suring future viability and organisation and cooperation –
contributed to the solid performance achieved in 2020. The
next strategic programme for the period until 2025, which
is currently being prepared, will continue to focus on ef-