
The global economy maintained solid growth momentum in Q2,
with mild recoveries in Western Europe and emerging markets,
and strong growth in the US. Oxford Economics expects global
GDP growth of 2.6% in 2024, slightly up from their late Q1 esti-
mate. The Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
(PMI) moved further into expansion territory (above the 50
threshold) through Q2. On average, the manufacturing export
orders PMI rose, although the trajectory through the quarter
was less encouraging than expected, due to weak activity in
Europe. The orders-to- inventories PMI ratio held steady on
average from Q1 to Q2.
US goods demand grew 2% y/y in Q2, an acceleration from Q1.
A healthy, albeit cooling labour market, and wage gains are
expected to continue to support US consumers. Declining
consumer confidence and savings, however, are clouds at the
horizon. The US inventory-to-sales ratio remained around
2019- levels, unchanged from the Q1 average. In contrast, euro
area consumption continues to grow at a slower pace than the
US, despite robust labour markets and wage gains. Euro Area
retail sales (excluding food and fuel) strengthened in April and
May and were up 0.9% y/y on average after being flat y/y in Q1.
Activity indicators for Q2 do not suggest a significant lift in
growth in China. Exports remain a major contributor, counter-
balanced by low consumer demand and a weak housing market.
Global container demand is estimated to have grown between
5-7% y/y in Q2, with all import regions contributing posi tively
except for Africa. Import growth in Q2 was strongest in Latin
America, North America and Far East Asia. The top three fastest
growing verticals in Q2 are Chemicals, Retail and Tech. On the
export side, Chinese exports stood out once more with y/y
growth close to 10% in Q2. Global container demand growth is
expected to remain positive in coming quarters, but likely at a
slower pace. Given that it has exceeded expectations in the
first half of the year, the estimated range for demand growth
for 2024 is moved upward, between 4-6%. Substantial risks
persist despite the upward revision.
On the supply side, similar to Q1, growth remained significant in
Q2, driven by a large influx of deliveries. At the end of the quar-
ter, the nominal fleet was 10.4% larger than at the same time in
2023, while inactive capacity remained low in a historical context.
Despite the influx of newbuild capacity, supply chains entered
a new phase of stress in reaction to geopolitical tensions, that
resulted in an unexpected increase in spot rates in Q2, up 163%
y/y. The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 3,714
in the last week of June, the highest value since 5 August 2022.
Port congestions surfaced again locally, especially in Far East
Asia and in the Middle East. On a global level however, waiting
time averaged 8.4 hours in Q2 2024, up from 7.5 hours in Q2
2023, but remained far from pandemic peaks.
Market environment
Global air freight forwarding demand grew by 3.0% y/y in Q1 and
is estimated to have increased by 6-7% y/y in Q2. A modal shift
from container shipping supported air freight demand growth,
in reaction to low Ocean schedule reliability. Growth is well spread
across regions and types of goods. Chinese exports, which have
grown by 11% year to date, primarily driven by e-commerce, are
a major contributor to demand growth in air freight forwarding.
Supply continued to increase in Q2, up by 8% y/y, primarily due
to a positive inflow of belly capacity in Asia Pacific. Despite the
increase in capacity, rates, measured by the TAC index, remained
stable throughout the quarter and only contracted 2% y/y.
The North American road freight market has experienced declin-
ing volumes in H1. However, there are signs that the market may
have bottomed out, such that demand growth was positive in
Q2 compared to Q1. Despite this, supply-side challenges persist,
with a high number of carriers still active in the market. The dis-
parity between Full Truckload (FTL) and Less Than Truckload (LTL)
rates continues, as weak demand and loose supply pressures FTL
rates, while a better supply-demand balance supports LTL rates.
The situation in Europe remains challenging, where weak activity
in the manufacturing sector is suppressing demand for road
freight. However, tightness in available capacity has contributed
to an increase in rates. According to Transporeon, spot rates in
Europe have increased by 10% y/y in Q2, while contract prices
have risen by 3% y/y.
According to Cushman and Wakefield, vacancy rates for US ware-
housing have in creased to 6.1% in Q2 2024, compared to 4.0% for
the same period in 2023. Demand growth remains positive. How-
ever, the supply pipeline is limited as construction starts are cur-
tailed by high interest rates. With new supply slowing, rents are
likely to be supported from this point forward. In the euro area,
vacancy rates are also expected to rise, but as in the US, a slow-
down in new supply will help limit further increases in vacancies.
North America
Latin America
Far East Asia
Europe
Global Index
(FY2019=100)
Source: Maersk Strategic Insights
Container trade volumes, by import region
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
125
100
75
Management Review I Market environment
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A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK INTERIM REPORT Q2 | 7 AUGUST 2024