
Market insights
Logistics services demand moderated across global sup-
ply chains in Q1 2022. The Russian invasion of Ukraine
came at a time, where most economic data suggested
that the global economy was set to accelerate on the
back of a rebound in service sector activity as the Omi-
cron wave of COVID-19 faded in large parts of the World
(China a notable exception).
The invasion and the ensuing sanctions on Russia are
clearly having a very significant negative impact on
Ukraine and Russia. The invasion has also added to infla-
tionary pressures elsewhere via higher energy and com-
modity prices. At this stage, not much data is available for
the post-invasion period. Survey data suggests that out-
side Russia, Ukraine, and China activity held up reasonably
well in March, but at the same time forward-looking com-
ponents suggest that the shock will feed through to activ-
ity in the coming months. Europe as well as many emerg-
ing and developing economies are at this stage among the
most exposed to the fallout from the invasion. Key to the
outlook for trade is how consumers and businesses react to
the elevated uncertainty, higher prices, and tighter finan-
cial conditions, and in the case of China to the fall out of
zero-COVID-19 policy.
Global container demand declined by 1.2% in Q1, down
from 7.7% growth in 2021, while global port throughput
increased by 3.1% (Drewry) and global air cargo volumes
(CTK) rose by 2.9%. Trade flow levels flattened at high
levels in the USA, where consumption of technology and
retail goods had been supported during the COVID-19
pandemic. North American container imports from the
Far East rose only 0.5% in Q1. European consumer con-
fidence remained high in the beginning of 2022 (before
dropping sharply in March following the Russian invasion
of Ukraine) and unmet demand from capacity shortages
in 2021 further supported import volumes. Consequently,
European container imports from the Far East increased
by 1.4% in Q1.
The supply-side of the logistics industry continued to be
disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic and capacity short-
ages. Container availability and air capacity remained tight,
while wait times for vessels outside of ports remained
lengthy given the bottle necks in landside transportation
and warehousing. According to Clarkson’s, port conges-
tions eased slightly from their peaks in the USA in Q1, while
they increased further in Europe and China. This continued
to result in shortages and challenged supply chain man-
agement services and kept rates elevated. The invasion
of Ukraine likely added further to strains in supply chain
networks.
The air freight industry remained capacity constrained dur-
ing Q1, although capacity in the commercial air industry was
8.9% higher than a year earlier (February 2022 vs February
2021), it was still 5.6% below the February 2019 level. At
the end of Q1, the nominal global container fleet stood at
25.2m TEU, an increase of 4.2% compared to Q1 2021. The
idle fleet remained low in Q1 2022 (0.8% at the end of the
quarter) as the industry battled landside disruptions and
bottle necks in ports. Nevertheless, lost sailings and ves-
sel delays led by the congestions and an ongoing compo-
sitional shift in deployment from shorter intra-regional
trades to longer East-West trades continued to weigh on
effective supply growth in Q1 2022. In sum, effective supply
fell in Q1 compared to Q4 2021, but as headhaul demand
declined even more, the demand-supply balance deterio-
rated relative to Q4 2021. However, compared to Q1 2021 the
demand-supply balance was still tighter.
Freight and charter rates remained elevated in the container
industry, reflecting congestions, although a gradual decline
was recorded for spot/short-term contracts during Q1 relative
to Q4 2021, in line with the deterioration of supply- demand.
The order book reached 26% of the global fleet in Q1, com-
pared to 23% of the fleet at the end of Q4 2021 on back of
continued high activity in new ordering. Freight rates out of
China, as measured by the China Composite Freight Index
(CCFI), increased by 78% in Q1 compared to the Q1 2021.
The continued congestions and dislocation of supply and
demand fundamentals in the logistics industries increases
the uncertainty surrounding the rates outlook. On the
demand side, a reduced impact from the COVID-19 pandemic
should support the Global economy, but the composition of
spending is likely to rebalance towards services, and sharply
rising prices for some goods may lead consumers to adjust
their spending plans. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has
weakened the global demand outlook and significantly
added to uncertainty. Global container demand is projected
to stay flat at -1% to +1% in 2022, while air and land side
logistics demand is expected to remain more robust through
2022. On the supply side, supplier delivery times remain
lengthy, and there is little visibility into when capacity con-
straints (including landside bottle necks in trucking and
warehousing), which have been the key driver of the increase
in short-term freight rates, will abate. Moreover, the Russian
invasion of Ukraine also adds to supply uncertainty due to
sanctions and supplier network restrictions.
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Management review I Market insights
A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK INTERIM REPORT Q1 | 4 MAY 2022