ULTRANAV INTERNATIONAL ANNUAL REPORT 2024 NOTES | PAGE 41
3.2 TANGIBLE ASSETS & RIGHT-OF-USE ASSETS (CONTINUED)
! ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
ASSESSING INDICATIONS OF IMPAIRMENT
Management’s assessment of whether there is any indication that an asset, or a CGU, may
be impaired comprise, among other things, financial performance, broker values,
newbuilding prices, and freight and time charter rates. This assessment involves significant
judgment.
ASSESSING INDICATIONS OF IMPAIRMENT – DRY BULK
Near future climate-related risks are mainly affecting the freight rates of a vessel, as they
depend on the environmental classification and performance of the vessel. This was taken
into consideration when determining the freight and time charter rates and when
evaluating the vessels’ earning potential in our forecast. Long-term climate-related risks
have not been regarded as a significant factor in the impairment test as most operated
vessels are chartered and such risks remain with the owners of the vessels, further in reality
the solution for something else than fossil fuels for the full fleet of Bulk vessels are many
years away and Ultrabulk’s fleet age is much younger than the global fleet age.
From a historical perspective, the market in 2024 has generally remained strong, albeit with
increased volatility. There have been more rapid shifts in spot and future freight rates from
week to week and even day to day compared to what has previously been seen. However,
simultaneously, the average rates have remained profitable. This development is something
which is expected to persist moving forward.
Political factors add a general uncertainty and volatility to freight rates linked to, but not
limited to, the Ukraine/Russia war, trade tensions between the United States and China,
the ongoing war in Israel and the surrounding countries. Apart from that management are
monitoring the increased volatile weather the world is experiencing resulting in harsh
weather and draught in the Panama Canal as a few examples.
On the other hand, a low newbuilding orderbook for dry cargo carriers does indicate
generally healthy market fundamentals, which are expected to keep long- and medium-
term freight rates at a sustainable level. This is underscored by the fact that the sector had
large building years of new buildings in 2009-2016 and these vessels from 2009 are now 15
years old and will get older in the coming years. Further environmental regulations are
helping the market as vessels must sail slower to comply with the regulations, this means
that supply of tonnage is decreasing, and management expects this trend to continue.
Consequently, the expected long- and medium-term freight rates are expected to continue
to generate positive free cash flow supporting the carrying amount of the right-of-use
vessels. As such, no indications of need for impairments were identified.
ASSESSING INDICATIONS OF IMPAIRMENT – TANKER
The tanker sector’s outlook has become more uncertain following record years between
2022 and 2024. However, limited fleet growth alongside increasing demand for refined
products and exports from regions such as the U.S. could provide some support to earnings
despite ongoing uncertainties. Market adjustments will depend on consumption patterns,
inventory fluctuations, and broader macroeconomic factors, including inflation and trade
policies. The outlook for 2025 suggests an easing in the product tanker market compared
to the strength seen in 2024.
Market pressures have emerged from reduced refinery throughput due to weak refining
margins, softer oil demand trends, and crude tankers trading clean cargoes. However,
longer-haul routes—driven by Russia-related sanctions and Red Sea re-routing—are
expected to persist, potentially increasing ton-mile demand by 5%. If this trend continues
in 2025, product tanker demand is projected to grow by 2.7%, though developments in the
crude tanker sector, particularly LR2 incentives to trade dirty cargoes, could influence this
outlook.
Time charter rates continue to generate strong earnings despite recent declines. Rates are
expected to remain firm in 2025, with a gradual softening as newbuilds are introduced.
Geopolitical disruptions, including the Ukraine-Russia conflict and Red Sea tensions, will
continue to limit global fleet productivity, reducing vessel availability. Additionally, the
strong freight market is supporting increased second-hand vessel transactions, particularly
among Asian buyers. This trend is shifting ship placements to regional markets, further
constraining supply available to Western operators.
Despite these factors, medium- and long-term freight rates are still expected to generate
positive free cash flow, reinforcing vessel valuations. External conditions do not indicate
any need for adjustments beyond normal depreciation expectations.