
Short-term inflation is forecast to remain
at an elevated level compared to long-term
assumptions and as a result, we believe it
appropriate to incorporate a two-year
short-term inflation forecast assumption
in our operational jurisdictions.
In total, the combined effect of revised
short-term inflation forecasts and the update
of actual inflation (included in Portfolio Return,
above) resulted in a £76.2 million, or a 7.6 per
cent increase in NAV, and this demonstrates
the contracted high-quality inflation linkage of
our investment proposition. See also page 38
for further details on our inflation linkage.
Short-term deposit rates have risen in
conjunction with the increase in underlying
benchmark rates and are expected to remain at
elevated levels in most jurisdictions. We also
believe it appropriate to update some of our
long-term deposit rate assumptions to reflect
the current rate environment. The effect of
revised deposit rate assumptions resulted in a
£15.8 million, or a 1.6 per cent increase in NAV.
Foreign exchange:
The forecasted distributions from investments
are converted to Sterling at either the contracted
foreign exchange rate, for 100 per cent of
non-Sterling and non-Euro denominated cash
flows forecast to be received over the next four
years on an annual rolling basis, or at the closing
foreign exchange rate for the unhedged future
cash flows.
A significant proportion of the Company’s
underlying investments are denominated in
currencies other than Sterling. The Company
maintains its accounts, prepares the valuation,
and pays dividends in Sterling. Accordingly,
fluctuations in exchange rates between Sterling
and the relevant local currencies will affect the
value of the Company’s underlying investments.
During the year ended 31 December 2022,
the depreciation of Sterling (GBP) against the
Canadian Dollar (CAD), Australian Dollar (AUD),
the Euro (EUR), and the US Dollar (USD), and
the slight appreciation of Sterling against the
Norwegian Krone (NOK) accounted for a net
increase in the portfolio value of £37.1 million,
which includes the unrealised result from the
Company’s balance sheet hedging. Since IPO
in December 2011, the net cumulative effect of
foreign exchange movements on the portfolio
value, after considering the effect of balance
sheet hedging, has been an increase of £11.9
million, or 1.1 per cent of the 31 December
2022 NAV.
The table below shows the closing exchange
rates, which were used to convert unhedged
future cash flows into the reporting currency
at 31 December 2022.
Although the closing rate is the required
conversion rate to use for the unhedged future
cash flows, it is not necessarily representative
of future exchange rates as it reflects a specific
point in time.
The Group uses forward currency swaps to
(i) hedge 100 per cent of forecasted cash flows
over the next four years on an annual rolling
basis and (ii) to implement balance sheet
hedging in order to limit the decrease in the
NAV to approximately three per cent, for a ten
per cent adverse movement in foreign exchange
rates
17
. This is achieved by hedging a portion
of the non-Sterling and non-Euro portfolio
value
18
. The effect of the Company’s hedging
strategy can also be expressed as a theoretical
or implicit portfolio allocation to Sterling
exposure. In other words, on an unhedged
basis, the portfolio allocation to Sterling
exposure at 31 December 2022 would need to
be approximately 74 per cent to obtain the
same NAV sensitivity to a ten per cent adverse
change in foreign exchange rates, as shown in
the Foreign Exchange Sensitivity table below.
Macroeconomic events
The quality and predictability of portfolio cash
flows has come into sharper focus given
uncertainty in the markets generally and
continued elevated inflation levels in particular.
Against this backdrop, the Company is well-
positioned through its contracted high-quality
inflation linkage, which is achieved through
annually updated contractual indexation in
the Company’s project agreements.
Additionally, there has been no material adverse
effect on the portfolio valuation resulting from
the war in Ukraine. This is primarily as a result of
the Company holding a low-risk, 100 per cent
availability-style portfolio, coupled with strong
stakeholder collaboration.
Discount rates
The market for availability-style transactions
continued to be competitive with discount rates,
based on our market observations, remaining
largely stable during the first half of 2022.
During the second half of 2022, the number of
availability-style transactions slowed materially
in part due to the changing macroeconomic
environment. As transactional data is limited,
the Company complemented its market-based
approach for this reporting period by using the
capital asset pricing model where government
risk free rates plus an equity risk premium are
used to calculate discount rates. This analysis is
used as a plausibility check for our market-
based approach. While there is no direct
correlation between government bond yields
and the risk premium on the one hand and
market discount rates on the other, the equity
risk premium is a useful additional data point.
As at 31 December 2022, the risk premium is
310 basis points over the weighted average
government bond yield of 380 basis points.
The Company believes that a risk premium in
the range of 250 to 350 basis points is
appropriate for the low-risk availability style
assets in our portfolio. This is supported by an
announcement of the German Network Agency,
which calculated equity risk premium for
regulated gas and assets of around 3 per cent.
As it is generally accepted that PPP/PFI assets
have a lower risk profile than regulated assets,
on this basis the risk premium for PPP/PFI assets
should be generally around the 3 per cent mark.
Going forward, the Company believes that
investment demand in the availability-style social
infrastructure providing long-term predictable
inflation-linked characteristics will remain strong.
Based on data from transactional activity,
benchmark analysis with comparable companies
and sectors, discussions with advisers in the
relevant markets, publicly available information
gathered over the year and equity risk premium
over government bond yields, we have
increased the weighted average discount rate
to 6.9 per cent (31 December 2021: 6.6 per
cent). This methodology calculates the
weighted average based on the value of each
investment in proportion to the total portfolio
value, i.e. based on the net present value of
their respective future cash flows.
Specific discount rates consider risks associated
with the investment including the phase the
investment is in, such as construction, ramp-up
or stable operation, investment-specific risks
and opportunities, as well as country-specific
factors. We apply a risk premium for investments
in construction to reflect the higher-risk inherent
in the construction phase of any investment’s
lifecycle. Currently, the portfolio has one
investment in construction, Highway 104, which
represents approximately 0.5 per cent of the
GBP/
Valuation
impact
FX rates as of
31 December 2022
FX rates as of
31 December 2021
FX rate
change
AUD 1.7743 1.8607 4.64%
CAD
1.6386 1.7159 4.50%
EUR
1.1298 1.1912 5.15%
NOK
11.9150 11.9114 (0.03%)
USD
1.2097 1.3512 10.47%
17 Based on the portfolio composition on the date the
balance sheet hedge contracts are entered into.
18 The Company assumes an equal and offsetting amount
between running costs and Euros received into the future.
Valuation continued
Annual Report 2022 31
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