
7
The German economy
Germany's economic outlook for the remainder of 2026 remains challenging, but forecasters still expect
weak-to-moderate growth rather than a renewed recession. Expansionary fiscal policy, defence spending
and infrastructure investment support activity, while the energy price shock from the Middle East conflict,
renewed inflation and higher financing costs pull in the opposite direction. The ifo Institute describes an
economy currently shaped by conflicting forces. (ifo Institute, June 2026)
Growth expectations for 2026 have been revised down and now cluster in a range of around 0.6%-0.9%.
The European Commission expects real GDP growth of 0.6% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027 (Spring Forecast,
May 2026), the OECD projects 0.7% and 1.1% (Economic Outlook, June 2026), the ifo Institute forecasts
0.8% for both years, and the IWH summer forecast is 0.9%, conditional on the Gulf conflict easing and
energy prices not rising further. This is materially below the 1.0%-1.4% expected at the start of the year.
The composition of growth remains skewed towards the public sector. Public investment and defence
spending are set to rise strongly, whereas exports are projected to broadly stagnate after three years of
contraction, held back by tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, and private investment is expected to
recover only gradually. (European Commission, May 2026; OECD, June 2026)
Inflation forecasts have been raised: ECB staff projections put euro area headline inflation at 2.6% in
2026 before returning to 2.0% in 2027, mainly reflecting higher energy prices. (ECB, March 2026)
Interim Report – First Half 2026 │ The German economy
Interest-rate expectations have shifted accordingly. The rate cuts previously priced in for 2026 have
given way to tightening: the ECB raised its deposit facility rate to 2.25% in June 2026, and the base
case for the remainder of the year is a hold at that level with a material probability of one further 25 bp
increase, with the Governing Council stressing a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. Ten-
year German government bond yields rose temporarily above 3.0% during 2026, the highest level
since 2011. (ECB, June 2026; JLL, Q1 2026)
Domestic demand is expected to improve only gradually. Private consumption is supported by rising
wages, but higher energy prices and inflation are eroding real income growth and households remain
cautious. Business investment stays subdued in export-oriented and energy-intensive industries, and
the labour market is expected to improve only with a lag, keeping unemployment elevated through the
remainder of 2026. (OECD; ifo Institute, June 2026)
Overall, the German economy is expected to remain in a fragile stabilisation phase for the rest of 2026
rather than entering a strong recovery. Euro area growth expectations for 2026 have been cut by 0.3
percentage points to 0.9%, and the OECD stresses that the outcome for the second half of the year
depends on whether the energy supply disruption proves time-limited or prolonged. (ECB Survey of
Professional Forecasters, Q2 2026; OECD, June 2026).
It is the general opinion of the management that, despite the above predictions, the rental market is
characterized by a very negative mood, which may continue to affect the rent level and capitalization
factors in a further negative direction.