Financial Guidance 2024
The full-year 2024 expectations remain unchanged compared with the those communicated in relation
to the release of the Annual Report 2023 on 5 March 2024.
The consumption of handmade cigars in the US is expected to remain resilient over time, although
2024 may be another year with consumption declining more than the historic structural decline rate.
The market for handmade cigars has not yet fully stabilised since the exceptional volume growth during
the pandemic and consumers are still adapting to changes in disposable income and higher interest
rates. However, consumption remains well above pre-pandemic levels. However, we expect price in-
creases on our products, continued growth in our online and retail distribution channels as well as in
our international markets will more than offset the decrease in consumption. We expect organic net
sales of handmade cigars to increase compared with last year.
The consumption of machine-rolled cigars and smoking tobacco in our European markets is expected
to develop close to their structural decline rates, though with volatility from quarter to quarter. We have
worked actively to stop the decline in market share in machine-rolled cigars in Europe, but the current
activities are not sufficient. We have decided on a set of additional activities which are currently being
implemented, including a more differentiated pricing strategy. To regain market share remains one of
our highest Group priorities for 2024.
We expect net sales from our own NGO brands will increase by more than 50% driven by market share
expansion and roll-out to new markets.
Based on the above and at current exchange rates, the Group reported net sales are expected in the
range of DKK 8.8-9.1 billion (2023: DKK 8.7 billion). All three commercial divisions are expected to
deliver growth in net sales compared with 2023 with the highest growth in EUB driven by increasing
sales of NGPs and pricing in the core categories. The Growth Enablers are expected to account for at
least 10% of Group net sales in 2024.
The EBITDA margin before special items is expected in the range of 22-24% (2023: 24.1%). The
margin is being diluted by increased investments in our Growth Enablers and machine-rolled cigars in
Europe, cost inflation and mix changes being partly offset by price increases and continued cost opti-
misations which will benefit coming years.
Free cash flow is expected in the range of DKK 0.8-1.0 billion and will be impacted by investments in
the retail expansion in the US, track and trace implementation in the EU and in the ERP-roll-out of up
to DKK 300 million compared with a level of DKK 200 million in 2023. Working capital is expected to
deliver a negative contribution primarily relating to the expected increase in net sales, higher cost
prices and the expansion into new product groups.
Adjusted EPS is expected in the range of DKK 12.5-14.5 including an estimated impact from the cur-
rent share repurchase programme of DKK 0.5.
Given these considerations, guidance for 2024 is:
• Reported net sales in the range of DKK 8.8-9.1 billion.
• EBITDA-margin before special items in the range of 22-24%.
• Free cash flow before acquisitions in the range of DKK 0.8-1.0 billion.
• Adjusted EPS in the range of DKK 12.5-14.5.
In the second quarter, the Group is expected to deliver organic net sales growth and an improvement
in the EBITDA-margin compared with the first quarter of 2024. All three commercial divisions are