Financial guidance for 2021
Scandinavian Tobacco Group has had a strong start to 2021 and upgrades the guidance for 2021 as
both net sales and synergies from the acquisition of Agio Cigars exceed expectations. However, un-
certainty remains high and the COVID19 pandemic continues to impact business performance in
most of our markets and is expected to have implications for consumer behaviour and overall to-
bacco consumption also during the coming quarters. The visibility of the market development re-
mains low with some societies opening up while others reintroduce restrictions. We are unable to
predict consumer behavior and consumption with the normal level of accuracy and hence we see
scenarios where performance remains strong across all three divisions and we also see scenarios,
where some divisions could be more negatively impacted by faster than anticipated demand
changes.
Given these circumstances and based on the financial performance in the first quarter of the 2021
we have raised the guidance and introduced a range for our expected organic EBITDA growth and
free cash flow performance and revise our guidance accordingly.
• EBITDA: Organic growth in the range of 12%-18% (from > 7%)
• Free cash flow before acquisitions in the range of DKK 1.0-1.3 billion (from >DKK 1.0 billion)
• Adjusted EPS >25% increase (from >10% increase)
The high-end of the guidance range for organic EBITDA growth is based on a positive organic net
sales growth during 2021. In this scenario demand for handmade cigars in the US remains strong
across all channels, also in the second half of the year, impacting both North America Online & Re-
tail and North America Branded & Rest of World. Furthermore, a gradual normalisation of the Euro-
pean markets is assumed with a continued opening of societies positively impacting volumes in Eu-
rope Branded.
The low end of the guidance range assumes that net sales for the Group equalizes in the second
half of the year with consumer behaviour in the US market reversing and the restrictions and border
closures in Europe prevailing.
In both scenarios, organic EBITDA growth is expected to be supported by additional synergies from
the integration of Agio Cigars of about DKK 100 million (previously about DKK 70-80 million) and the
full year effect of Fuelling the Growth.
The guidance range for free cash flow before acquisitions is based on the expectations for EBITDA.
The free cash flow before acquisitions is still expected to be impacted by relatively high investments
in production footprint and digitalisation initiatives with total capex expected at DKK 370 million (DKK
410 million) as well as a slightly negative impact from working capital including, the previously com-
municated timing impact from payables in the level of DKK 150 million. For the full year the expecta-
tions for total capex and working capital movements can be impacted by decisions to delay invest-
ments and to change inventory positions should COVID-19 or the development in consumer demand
across product categories necessitate that.
The guidance of an adjusted EPS of an increase of >25% compared with previously an increase of
>10% (from DKK 9.78) includes a positive impact from share repurchases and a negative impact
from currency developments.
The guidance and assumptions are based on current exchange rates.