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Outlook
Energy Markets to Remain Volatile in 2023
Following a turbulent 2022, energy markets are expected to return to more of a normality this year, which also
applies to InCommodities’ business.
As of the beginning of 2023, the energy market is much better positioned than we ever imaginednsmpossible
when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The starting point for Europe is positive, with full inventories
of natural gas. However, it is important to note that 2023 will mark the first year when European countries will
have to manage without significant gas supplies from Russia. As a result, these countries’ ability to replenish
their gas inventories has not yet normalized. Therefore, European residents cannot return to normal gas
consumption without it having significant consequences on the price level.
From a global perspective, we expect to see the consequences of China’s reopening of society after a prolonged
COVID-19 lockdown. In 2021 and 2022, Europe was able to access vast quantities of LNG due to China’s
lockdown and reduced demand in the industry. However, this is expected to change in 2023, as we anticipate
intensified competition for LNG. In other words, the energy crisis and the accompanying concerns are not over
yet. A cold beginning of the 2023-2024 winter could rapidly destabilize the situation again. In the long-term, we
anticipate the shifting world-wide energy scenario to have a lasting, massive impact in the decades ahead, on a
scale that we have yet to fully comprehend. 2022 has created a new situation in which uncertainty about energy
supplies will have significant consequences for a number of industries.
Energy-intensive industries in particular may face increasing pressure to relocate away from Europe as a result.
To us, gradual normalization will mean a return to more normal growth rates. We are still committed to
developing and scaling our business, but our realistic expectation is that our 2023 earnings will be at least 50%
lower than our profit in 2022. Thus, earnings before tax is expected to be EUR 100-250 million. The latest
political declarations remain unclear on whether the trading industry will be subject to a windfall tax after a
turbulent 2022. It is uncertain whether political intervention could undermine free energy markets with
incalculable consequences. As the past year has demonstrated, volatile markets place significant demands on
trading companies’ liquidity to maintain their capacity. A market with fewer participants able to participate will
result in reduced efficiency, ultimately leading to negative impacts on energy prices for consumers and a slower
transition towards net-zero
Committed To Spend 5% of Earnings to Support Net–Zero
In the future, part of our earnings will be invested in advancing the green transition across different initiatives.
In 2023, we are taking further steps to support the movement towards net-zero emissions. Through a new
commitment called the InCommodities Sustainable Investment Initiative, we are targeting spending 5% of our
earnings every year on investment in infrastructure, companies, or renewable assets that support the transition
towards net-zero.
As a well-run company that grows profitably, we want to take greater responsibility in the energy sector we are
part of. Although the war in Ukraine has shown that fossil fuels cannot be phased out at the drop of a hat, we
believe that the transition towards net-zero is proceeding too slowly. It takes too long to get permits for solar
and wind parks, and too many good ambitions are impeded by bureaucracy. The risk of political interference in
the market creates new uncertainty, and this uncertainty causes projects to be stopped.
Many European countries have wasted decades of political stagnation and failed to drive a genuine green
transition. The initiative is in part driven by our experiences in the energy market, which have given us a unique
insight into investing intelligently by spending resources where they have the biggest impact. This ability
imposes a duty on us. But in addition, we want to create a lasting impact in more dimensions than we do today.
Our 5% contribution will be implemented in various ways. For example, we will invest in infrastructure such as
solar parks, where our active ownership can make a difference for the climate, the environment, and society.
We will also investigate our options for investing in startups with interesting green technology, or in funds
which excel at investing in technology that makes a real difference.