
PGS Annual Report 2023 59
applied a pre-tax discount rate of 12% for the years ended December 31, 2023 and
2022. The discount rate reflects the estimated weighted average cost of capital
(“WACC”) for Company activities.
Impairment of seismic vessels and equipment
The recoverable amount of seismic assets is determined using value in use
calculations, involving the discounting of future cash flows to their present
value. This evaluation incorporates key estimates such as contract pricing,
maintenance cost and the weighted average cost of capital. Moreover, it factors
in the potential impact of climate change and the energy transition on Company
operations.
Each vessel constitutes a separate CGU for impairment testing, with seismic
equipment allocated accordingly.
Future cash flow projections are based on management’s assumptions
regarding demand, market dynamics, technological advancements, and the
anticipated effects of climate change. Significant and unanticipated changes in
these assumptions could result in impairments in subsequent reporting periods.
For impairment calculations in 2023, management expects higher revenue
levels for the fleet in 2024 compared to the previous year. Management expects
the global energy consumption to continue to increase longer term with oil
and gas remaining an important part of the energy mix. With significant under
investments in exploration and production spending over recent years, global
exploration and production spending increased year-on-year in both 2022 and
2023. Spending growth is expected to continue in 2024, and the growth is likely
to remain healthy in subsequent years.
PGS expects the increasing demand in combination with a very consolidated
seismic market and limited additional available vessel supply, to support a
continued recovery for the offshore seismic market. The increased focus on
energy security has highlighted the importance of oil and gas production in
areas with market access, not just sufficient world production.
For the long term, from 2032, two main scenarios have been incorporated into
cash flow forecasts, as described in the section below.
Climate change and the energy transition considerations
The Company anticipates that the ongoing energy transition will influence the
future demand and pricing on its geophysical services related to oil and gas
exploration.
PGS incorporates two main scenarios into its forecasts regarding the energy
transition’s impact on future demand and pricing of geophysical services. The
base case scenario assumes a gradual transition from oil and gas to other
energy sources, accompanied by increased activity in New Energy projects. In
contrast, the fast energy transition scenario envisions a more dynamic shift,
with significant reductions in E&P projects only partly offset by increased New
Energy activity. Each scenario has been given a 50% weighting.
The base case scenario is developed from the best estimates of current trends
and indications of policy over the next 5 years, and assumes a gradual transition
from oil and gas to other energy sources by 2050, accompanied by increased
activity in New Energy projects like Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage
(CCUS) which is a key technology for reducing CO2 emissions and achieving
net zero goals. The fast energy transition scenario incorporates the effect of
more dynamic government policy and advances in technology, over an extended
forecasting period to 2042. In this scenario assumptions remain the same as
the base case until 2032, then a significant shift in the market is assumed to
cause a rapid reduction of new frontier exploration surveys by 80% and other
exploration surveys by 50%, while activity for 4D surveys remain stable. The
accelerated reduction in E&P projects is only partially offset by an increase
in New Energy project activity. In this scenario with a reduction of the market
for seismic vessels, the Company also assumes that fewer active vessels will
be available over time based on a review of the expected economic life of the
current world fleet.
Management has forecasted EBIT margins for the nearest 4 years which are
above the historical average, thereafter trending towards historic average
margins above ~16% in the base case scenario and trending to approximately
half of the historical average in the fast energy transition scenario.
Overall, these assumptions did not result in impairment charges for seismic
vessels in the current year. As the future effect of climate change and
the energy transition depends upon market, technological and legislative
developments that are currently highly uncertain, subsequent changes in
assumptions may result in impairment charges or reversals in the future.
The Company will continue to monitor the energy transition and will update
the assumptions in the scenarios and their probabilities as new information
becomes available.
Sensitivity analysis on impairment evaluation of seismic vessels
and equipment
The key assumptions used in evaluating impairment are subject to substantial
uncertainty, due to the volatile nature of macro-economic factors such as future
oil price, discount rate and any changes to rules and regulations around seismic
exploration.
Had assumed long-term EBIT margins been 3 percentage points lower, for the
remaining estimated useful life of the assets when estimating future cash flows,
then impairment of the fleet would approximate $2 million as of December 31,
2023. If EBIT margins had been 5 percentage points lower, corresponding to an
approximately 6 percent reduction of pricing, then impairment of the fleet would be
approximately $62 million as of December 31, 2023.
For scenarios with either (i) a 2%, increase of WACC or (ii) giving 100% weight to the
fast energy transition scenario, there would have been headroom for all vessels as
of December 31, 2023.
Forecast sales of MultiClient library
Generally, a survey is defined as a separate CGU, but it may in some cases
be combined with surveys that are geographically adjacent and marketed
combined.
At least annually, management forecasts future sales for each MultiClient library
survey for purposes of determining the amount of impairment. Sales forecasts
are also estimated in calculating the amount of accelerated amortization for
surveys which have licensed disproportionately sooner than implied by the
4-year amortization life; and for surveys that are completed at which time
prefunding revenue is recognized. In forecasting sales, management considers
past experience, market developments as described above, general prospects
for hydrocarbons in the area, political risk, likelihood and timing of exploration
licensing rounds, existence of competitor data sets and general economic
conditions. Due to the inherent difficulty in forecasting sales and future
developments, it is possible that the amount of impairment and amortization
could vary significantly between periods. In addition, future revenues from a
survey may not be sufficient to cover the existing carrying value. To the extent
the future actual revenues achieved prove to be less than forecasted, future
periods will reflect lower profitability and/or impairment of MultiClient library
surveys.
MultiClient surveys generally have a short economic lifetime compared to
vessels, and no alternative scenario similar to what was used in the impairment
testing for vessels have been prepared. Any impact on the marketability of
areas is built into the assessments of the individual surveys, generally PGS have
reduced the expectations for future sales in frontier areas.
Sensitivity of forecasted sales on MultiClient impairment evaluation
For 2023, the Company did not record any impairments to the MultiClient library.
A 10% reduction of the sales forecast for all surveys with a net book value as
of December 31, 2023, would have resulted in an impairment of approximately
$4 million. A 20% reduction of the sales forecast for all surveys with a net
book value as of December 31, 2023, would have resulted in an impairment of
approximately $10 million. A 2% increase of WACC used to discount the sales
forecast for all surveys with a net book value as of December 31, 2023, would not
trigger significant impairment.
Depreciation of seismic vessels and equipment
Depreciation is based on management estimates of the future economic
benefits and expected useful lives of seismic vessels and equipment. These
estimates may change due to changes in market conditions including
competition, technological development, use of the assets and strategic
considerations.
There is a risk of seismic vessels getting stranded due to a reduction in demand
for oil & gas related services. Management has in its assessment among
other considered the age of the current world fleet and the assumed market
development as described under the impairment section. The newest vessel has
an assumed economical lifetime till 2042 and management expect the demand
for services such as Carbon Capture, near field exploration and surveys over
production areas to support the economic lifetime of its current fleet. Refer to
impairment section for further information. In addition, future regulations over
fuel types and omissions could potentially impact the economic lifetime of the
vessels. The future development, including any transition rules, is uncertain and
management currently do not expect any reduction in lifetime.
Deferred tax assets
Deferred tax assets are recognized for unused tax losses to the extent it is
probable that future taxable profit will be available against which the losses