
PGS Annual Report 202212
to their present value. The Company has applied a range of key estimates
in developing cash flow forecasts, including future contract pricing, vessel
maintenance costs and its weighted average cost of capital. Cash flow
forecasts have also included estimates relating to the future impact
of climate change and the speed of the energy transition on Company
operations.
For the purpose of impairment testing, each vessel is considered as a
separate CGU and seismic equipment is allocated to the vessels.
Future cash flow estimates are based on management assumptions
about demand for our products and services, future market conditions
and technological developments, including the future impact of climate
change. Significant and unanticipated changes in these assumptions
could result in impairments in a future period.
For impairment calculations in 2022, management has assumed that
revenue levels for the fleet in 2023 will be higher than the prior year.
Management expects the global energy consumption to continue to
increase longer term with oil and gas remaining an important part
of the energy mix. With significant under investments in exploration
and production spending over recent years, global exploration and
production spending increased more than 20% in 2022. Spending
growth is expected to continue with a double-digit number in 2023, and
the growth is likely to remain healthy in subsequent years.
PGS expects the increasing demand in combination with a very
consolidated seismic market and limited additional vessel supply, to
support a continued recovery for the offshore seismic market. The
ongoing energy crisis in Europe has highlighted the importance of oil
and gas production in areas with market access, not just sufficient world
production.
From 2030, the impact of the two main energy transition scenarios has
been incorporated into cash flow forecasts, as described in the section
below.
Management has forecasted improved (“EBIT”) margins for 2 years
above the historical average, then to trend towards historic margins
above ~15% in the base case scenario and to trend to approximately
half of the historical average in a scenario assuming a faster energy
transition scenario.
Climate change and the energy transition
Climate change is increasingly accepted as a risk that entities globally
are already facing. The Company has considered the impact of climate
change and the energy transition in preparing the financial statements.
In particular, the energy transition is likely to affect future demand and
pricing of geophysical services relating to oil and gas exploration and
production, which in turn may affect the recoverable amount of seismic
vessels and equipment.
PGS has incorporated two main scenarios for the energy transition and its
potential impact into its forecasts – the base case scenario and the fast
energy transition scenario.
The base case scenario is developed from the best estimates of current
trends and indications of policy over the next 5 years, and assuming a
steady transition from oil and gas to other sources of energy by 2050. The
reduction in demand for traditional oil and gas E&P services coincides with
an increase in New Energy activity, such as Carbon Capture, Utilization
and Storage (CCUS) projects which are a key technology for reducing and
removing CO2 and achieving net zero goals.
The fast energy transition scenario incorporates the effect of more
dynamic government policy and advances in technology, over an extended
forecasting period to 2042. In this scenario assumptions remain the
same as the base case till 2030, then a significant shift in the market
is assumed to reduce, from pre-covid levels, new frontier exploration
surveys by 80%, stable/slow growth for 4D surveys and a 50% reduction
in demand for all other E&P related seismic surveys. The accelerated
reduction in E&P projects is only partially offset by an increase in New
Energy project activity. The Company assumes fewer active vessels will
be operating in the seismic market based on a review of the expected
economic lifetime of the world fleet.
The above scenarios have been given a 50/50 weighting. Overall, these
assumptions resulted in no impairment charges for seismic vessels
in the current year. As the future effect of climate change and the
energy transition depends upon market, technological and legislative
developments that are currently highly uncertain, subsequent changes in
assumptions may result in impairment charges or reversals in the future.
The Company will continue to monitor the energy transition and will
update the assumptions in the scenarios and their probabilities as new
information becomes available.
Sensitivity analysis on impairment evaluation of seismic vessels
and equipment
The key assumptions used in evaluating impairment are subject to
substantial uncertainty, due to the volatile nature of macro-economic
factors such as future oil price, discount rate and any changes to rules and
regulations around seismic exploration.
Had assumed long-term EBIT margins been 3 percentage points lower, for
the remaining estimated useful life of the assets when estimating future
cash flows, then impairment of the fleet would approximate $30 million
as of December 31, 2022. If EBIT margins had been 5 percentage points
lower corresponding to an approximately 6 percentage points reduction of
pricing, then impairment of the fleet would be approximate $85 million as of
December 31, 2022.
An increase of WACC of 2% would have resulted in an impairment of $15
million as of December 31, 2022. If the fast energy transition scenario was
given 100% weight, there would have been headroom for all vessels, except
one Titan class vessel with a minor ($2 million) negative headroom as of
December 31, 2022. Total headroom for the Titan class vessels is $60 million
in the base case scenario with 50%/50% weighting, while when fast energy
transition scenario is given 100% weight, the total headroom for Titan class
vessels is $7 million.
Forecast sales of MultiClient library
Generally, a survey is defined as a separate CGU, but may in some cases be
combined geographically adjacent and marketed combined.
At least annually, management forecasts future sales for each
MultiClient library survey for purposes of determining the amount
of impairment. Sales forecasts are also estimated in calculating the
amount of accelerated amortization for surveys which have licensed
disproportionately sooner than implied by the 4-year amortization life;
and for surveys that are completed at which time prefunding revenue is
recognized. In forecasting sales, management considers past experience,
market developments as described above, general prospects for
hydrocarbons in the area, political risk, likelihood and timing of exploration
licensing rounds, existence of competitor data sets and general economic
conditions. Due to the inherent difficulty in forecasting sales and
future developments, it is possible that the amount of impairment
and amortization could vary significantly between periods. In addition,
future revenues from a survey may not be sufficient to cover the existing
carrying value. To the extent the future actual revenues achieved prove to
be less than forecasted, future periods will reflect lower profitability and/
or impairment of MultiClient library surveys.
As MultiClient surveys generally have a shorter economic lifetime,
consequently no alternative scenario similar to vessels have been
prepared. Any impact on the marketability of areas is built into the
assessments of the individual surveys, generally PGS have reduced the
expectations for future sales in frontier areas.
Sensitivity of forecasted sales on MultiClient impairment evaluation
Impairment of the MultiClient library for 2022 amounted to $ 11.5 million.
A 10% reduction in the sales forecast for all surveys with a net book value
as of December 31, 2022 would have resulted in an additional impairment
of approximately $4 million. A 20% reduction in the sales forecast for
all surveys with a net book value as of December 31, 2022 would have
resulted in an additional impairment of approximately $16 million.