
| PGS Annual Report 202172
For the purpose of impairment testing, each vessel is considered as a
separate CGU and seismic equipment is allocated to the vessels.
Future cash flow estimates are based on management assumptions
about demand for our products and services, future market conditions
and technological developments, including the future impact of climate
change. Significant and unanticipated changes in these assumptions
could result in impairments in a future period.
For impairment calculations in 2021, management has assumed that
revenue levels for the fleet in 2022 will be higher than the prior year.
PGS expects the improved oil price, a likely global recovery from the
COVID-19 pandemic, and the eects of deferred projects from 2020
and 2021 to support gradual increasing demand for seismic services in
the subsequent years. From 2030, the impact of the two main energy
transition scenarios has been incorporated into cash flow forecasts, as
described in the section below.
Despite the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis, energy consumption is
expected to continue to increase longer term with oil and gas being an
important part of the energy mix as the global energy transition evolves
towards a higher share of renewable energy sources. Oshore reserves
will be vital for future supply and support demand for marine seismic
services. PGS expects the energy transition to impact future demand for
seismic, developing more towards near-field exploration and surveys over
production fields for reservoir optimization and relatively less interest
in frontier exploration. On that basis, management has forecasted
improved (“EBIT”) margins for 2 years above the historical average, then
to trend towards historic margins above ~15% in the base case scenario
and to trend to approximately half of the historical average in a scenario
assuming a faster energy transition scenario.
Climate change and the energy transition
The Company has considered the impact of climate change and the energy
transition in preparing the financial statements. In particular, the energy
transition is likely to aect future demand and pricing of geophysical
services relating to oil and gas exploration and production, which in turn
may aect the recoverable amount of seismic vessels and equipment.
PGS has incorporated two main scenarios for the energy transition and its
potential impact into its forecasts – the base case scenario and the fast
energy transition scenario.
The base case scenario is developed from the best estimates of current
trends and indications of policy over the next 5 years, and assuming a
steady transition from oil and gas to other sources of energy by 2050. The
reduction in demand for traditional oil and gas E&P services coincides with
an increase in New Energy activity, such as Carbon Capture, Utilization
and Storage (CCUS) projects which are a key technology for reducing and
removing CO2 and achieving net zero goals.
The fast energy transition scenario incorporates the eect of more
dynamic government policy and advances in technology, over an extended
forecasting period to 2042. In this scenario assumptions remain the
same as the base case till 2030, then a significant shift in the market
is assumed to reduce, from pre-covid levels, new frontier exploration
surveys by 80%, stable/slow growth for 4D surveys and a 50% reduction
in demand for all other E&P related seismic surveys. The accelerated
reduction in E&P projects is only partially oset by an increase in New
Energy project activity. The Company assumes fewer active vessels will
be operating in the seismic market based on a review of the expected
economic lifetime of the world fleet.
The above scenarios have been given a 50/50 weighting. Overall, these
assumptions resulted in an impairment of $15 million for seismic vessels
in the current year. As the future eect of climate change and the
energy transition depends upon market, technological and legislative
developments that are currently highly uncertain, subsequent changes in
assumptions may result in further impairment charges or reversals in the
future. The Company will continue to monitor the energy transition and
will update the assumptions in the scenarios and their probabilities as
new information becomes available.
Sensitivity analysis on impairment evaluation of seismic vessels
and equipment
The key assumptions used in evaluating impairment are subject to
substantial uncertainty, due to the volatile nature of macro-economic
factors such as future oil price, discount rate and any changes to rules and
regulations around seismic exploration.
Had assumed long-term EBIT margins been 3 percentage points lower, for
the remaining estimated useful life of the assets when estimating future
cash flows, then impairment of the fleet would approximate $105 million as
of December 31, 2021. If EBIT margins had been 5 percentage points lower
corresponding to an approximately 6 percentage points reduction of pricing,
then impairment of the fleet would be approximate $165 million as of
December 31, 2021.
An increase or decrease of WACC of 2% would have resulted in an impairment
of $ 88 million or reduced impairment to zero respectively. If the fast energy
transition scenario was given 100% weight, impairment would have increased
by approximately $45 million from $15 million to $60 million.
Forecast sales of MultiClient library
Generally, a survey is defined as a separate CGU, but may in some cases be
combined geographically adjacent and marketed combined.
At least annually, management forecasts future sales for each
MultiClient library survey for purposes of determining the amount
of impairment. Sales forecasts are also estimated in calculating the
amount of accelerated amortization for surveys which have licensed
disproportionately sooner than implied by the 4-year amortization life;
and for surveys that are completed at which time prefunding revenue is
recognized. In forecasting sales, management considers past experience,
market developments as described above, general prospects for
hydrocarbons in the area, political risk, likelihood and timing of exploration
licensing rounds, existence of competitor data sets and general economic
conditions. Due to the inherent diculty in forecasting sales and
future developments, it is possible that the amount of impairment
and amortization could vary significantly between periods. In addition,
future revenues from a survey may not be sucient to cover the existing
carrying value. To the extent the future actual revenues achieved prove to
be less than forecasted, future periods will reflect lower profitability and/
or impairment of MultiClient library surveys.
As MultiClient surveys generally have a shorter economic lifetime,
consequently no alternative scenario similar to vessels have been
prepared. Any impact on the marketability of areas is built into the
assessments of the individual surveys, generally PGS have reduced the
expectations for future sales in frontier areas.
Sensitivity of forecasted sales on MultiClient impairment evaluation
Impairment of the MultiClient library for 2021 amounted to $ 13.6 million.
A 10% reduction in the sales forecast for all surveys with a net book value
as of December 31, 2021 would have resulted in an additional impairment
of approximately $6 million. A 20% reduction in the sales forecast for
all surveys with a net book value as of December 31, 2021 would have
resulted in an additional impairment of approximately $16 million.
Depreciation of seismic vessels and equipment
Depreciation is based on management estimates of the future economic
benefits and expected useful lives of seismic vessels and equipment.
These estimates may change due to changes in market conditions
including competition, technological development, use of the assets and
strategic considerations.
There is a risk of seismic vessels getting stranded due to a reduction in
demand for oil & gas related services. Management has in its assessment
among other considered the age of the current world fleet and the
assumed market development as described under the impairment
section. The newest vessel has an assumed economical lifetime till 2042
and management expect the demand for services such as Carbon Capture,
near field exploration and surveys over production areas to support the
economic lifetime of its current fleet. Refer to impairment section for
further information.