CURRENT MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Building activity during the first quarter of 2023 saw
a notable decline, primarily driven by uncertainty
that led to a decrease in the issuance of permits,
delays in starts, and customer stock building in Q4
2022. Furthermore, unfavourable weather
conditions also played a role in the decline of
building activity during this period. In comparison,
Q1 2022 was characterized by strong post COVID-19
demand and sales price development.
In response to the current market environment, we
have decided to build resilience and mitigate the
impact of the lower market demand by accelerating
the planned optimisation of our factory network.
Effective from July 1, 2023, we will be closing our
German CSU factories in Demmin, Kronau and
Niederrimsingen as well as our AAC plant in Warsaw
and CSU plant in Pisz in Poland.
The optimisation plan involves transferring
production to nearby sites, while maintaining our
regional commercial presence. Our production
network has sufficient capacity to continuously serve
our customers.
We anticipate total restructuring cost classified as
special items in the range of DKK 70-80 million for
full-year 2023. In addition, net book value of
equipment related to the closures of around DKK
130 million is subject to impairment and treated as
special items. We expect this to be partly mitigated
by sale from or reuse of assets in the existing factory
network.
Despite declining markets, we were able to
successfully implement the planned price increases
throughout Q1 to cover inflation. Additionally, stock
was built up during Q1 to maximize plant utilization
before scaling back production in Q2.
In Germany, the number of building permits issued
declined by 25-30% year-on-year as of January. In
addition, high-interest rates have resulted in a
reduction of new mortgage loans for private
investors by approximately 35% since summer 2022.
Although there is some reluctance to undertake new
projects in multi-family houses before selling current
portfolios, the rental market remains undersupplied.
However, the number of building permits issued
continues to exceed the number of completions,
adding further to the construction backlog. The
German Association of Building Companies expect
245.000 completions of dwellings in 2023 equal to a
less severe, but still substantial, 13% decrease from
2022.
Additionally, despite the market downturn we
expect to benefit from our acquired AAC factory in
Feuchtwangen (south Germany) and recently
upgraded AAC factory in Wittenborn (north
Germany) which were both only partly operating in
2022.
In the UK, housing activity witnessed a significant
slowdown due to the prevailing high levels of
uncertainty, interest rates, and poor weather
conditions. However, consumer confidence is slowly
recovering from a low level and volume
housebuilder sales rates have improved in Q1 2023.
We continue to make progress in increasing AAC
penetration through foundation blocks and new
customers as planned. In the short term, we have
initiated resilience actions, including managing our
costs tightly. In the past our growth was capped by
our capacity, so our plan remains to increase the
capacity of our Borough Green plant during 2023,
adding 10% more volume in total UK capacity
starting from 2024 and thereby meeting future
customer demand.
In Poland, the building industry is significantly
affected by the high level of economic uncertainty.
The building activity is further constrained by
growing inflation and continued high interest rates,
leading to reduced loan capabilities for individual
investors.
The number of building permits has declined by 36%
year-on-year in February, with developers being the
most affected and the number of starts declined
approximately 40% for both individual investors and
developers. Despite this decline, the number of
building permits issued continues to exceed the
number of completions, which adds further to the
construction backlog.
The market conditions in Poland lead to a highly
competitive environment. However, we have
implemented our price increases in Q1 as planned.
Going forward we remain committed to pass on
inflation while monitoring the market carefully.