CURRENT MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Increasing inflation, geopolitical instabilities and the
continued interest rate increases have started to
impact customer demand in especially Poland and
Germany and is expected to continue rest of the
year.
Germany faces increasing inflation rates, in large
part due to rising energy prices due to uncertainty of
future supply. This has caused the number of
building permits for new buildings issued to decline
by 11% in August year-on-year. Further, the rising
inflation is driving an increasing trend of
postponements of construction starts.
In Q3, the Wittenborn factory was shut down for the
upgrade and is currently in ramp up. The update of
the Wittenborn factory gives strength to H+H’s AAC
factory network which will help drive market share
across Germany and into adjacent markets.
In the Nordics, building permits have started to
decrease and the latest economic analyses point to a
negative outlook for the construction industry due to
increased inflation and a shortage of labour and
materials. However, current activity levels remain
stable capped by the production output, and we
continue to view favourably at our market position
in Nordics.
In Switzerland and the Benelux countries,
uncertainties from current geopolitical events
continue to weigh on the expected economic growth
and building activities.
In the United Kingdom (“UK”), private housing
demand remains relatively resilient, but the
combination of increased inflation and rising interest
rates have led to decreases in expected starts.
While activity levels for the remainder of 2022
remains stable, the increased levels of uncertainty
fuel the anticipation of more difficult conditions in
the medium term. As H+H recently have
undersupplied compared to customer demand, we
view favourably at our position to serve the UK
market.
As we remain positive on the long-term
fundamentals, we continue to seek opportunities to
further increase our UK capacity.
In Poland, increased inflation and rising interest
rates have adversely impacted Polish purchasing
power and caused low visibility. This has driven a
decrease in construction starts over the January to
September period of 17% compared to 2021.
However, the number of building permits issued
over the January to September period remains at a
reasonable level partly driven by changes in
legislation, and housing completions remains stable.
It remains unclear to which extent refugees from
Ukraine will impact the Polish housing markets, but
the situation will likely add to the need for additional
new-build construction activity due to the already
significant shortage of housing space in the country.
The expansion of the Company’s AAC factory in Reda
with one additional CSU production line was
completed as planned and is now supplying to the
Polish market.
In summary, during the third quarter, H+H has
experienced changes in market conditions across our
footprint, resulting in declining market demand in
Poland and Germany. H+H expects a continued
declining trend in market demand as inflation and
interest rates continue to drive uncertainty and low
consumer confidence. H+H remains committed to
defend its margins by continued implementation of
sales price increases to counter the high inflationary
pressure.
Generally, H+H’s diversified geographical footprint
and strong factory networks provide a resilient
market position. In addition, H+H has initiated
specific resilience actions to mitigate impacts from a
potential continued declining market demand. These
measures include adjusting production capacity
where needed and utilizing governmental support
programmes where available. Also, actions have
been taken to reduce and manage the operating cost
base where relevant.
These expectations are based on the assumptions of
continuous availability of relevant energy sources
and raw materials and neither escalations of the war
in Ukraine nor further recessionary developments in
any of the Company’s current markets.
In the long term, the European housing market
continues to have strong underlying growth
opportunities driven by a structural undersupply of
housing, demographic growth, and urbanisation.