Global cement demand was
mixed in Q3 2024 with general
slowness in Western Europe, a
continued decline in China and
slower growth in emerging
markets, partly offset by pockets
of growth in certain other
countries such as India, Poland,
Turkey, Mexico and Nigeria.
During Q3 2024, a number of key indicators
deteriorated in Western European markets as
continued high interest rates and national debt
ratios adversely impacted construction and
infrastructure investment levels. In contrast,
demand in India remains high, driven by
residential and commercial construction and
government infrastructure spending.
Outside India, expected clinker capacity
expansion towards 2030 is overwhelmingly driven
by other emerging markets. Solid growth is seen
in parts of Africa, where Nigeria is expected to
continue to lead the way, Pakistan and Central
Asia, with relatively more moderate growth in
Southeast Asia and Latin America. Carbon
regulations are expected to constrain capacity
growth in mature markets, where capital
investments are likely focused on import
terminals, grinding stations, and supplementary
cementitious materials such as calcined clay.
The long-term outlook sees global investment in
solutions and services supporting
decarbonisation, such as improved energy
efficiency, digitalisation, calcined clay, alternative
fuels and carbon capture. These investments are
expected to reach beyond traditional markets for
such technologies, and we are already witnessing
export producers investing in green solutions in
preparation for the EU Carbon Border Adjustment
Mechanism (CBAM) and equivalents in other
markets. The Chinese cement market is also
actively pursuing more sustainable technologies
driven by government-set targets for carbon
emissions reductions.
Order intake development in Q3 2024
Cement order intake decreased by 31% in Q3
2024 compared to Q3 2023. Excluding
divestments and currency effects of 7%, the
organic order intake decreased by 24%.
Service order intake decreased by 20% compared
to Q3 2023, in large parts due to the AFT
divestment in Q3 2023 and the MAAG divestment
in Q1 2024. Adjusting for these divestments,
Service order intake showed a single-digit decline.
The year-on-year decline was driven by less
favourable market conditions in especially
Western Europe as well as the timing of the
booking of certain larger service orders.
Products order intake decreased by 53%
compared to Q3 2023. The year-on-year decline
was in large parts driven by the impact of
divestments, continued pruning of our product
portfolio as well as our exit from project-oriented
business with significant risk profiles and lower
margins.
Service and Products comprised 78% and 22% of
the total Cement order intake in Q3 2024,
respectively, compared to 67% and 33% in Q3
2023.
Order intake development in 9M 2024
Cement order intake in the first nine months of
2024 declined by 25% compared to the same
period in 2023. Excluding divestments and
currency effects of 5%, the organic order intake
decreased by 20%.
Service order intake decreased by 11% compared
to the first three quarters of 2023, mainly due to
the AFT divestment in Q3 2023 and the MAAG
divestment in Q1 2024. This was partly offset by
an increase in orders for our core service
offerings, spare parts and professional services,
as a result of the overall heightened focus on
aftermarket sales and the ability to grow the
share of wallet in our installed customer base.
Products order intake decreased by 48%
compared to 9M 2023 driven in large parts by the
impact of divestments, continued pruning of our
product portfolio and our exit from project-
oriented business with significant risk profiles and
lower margins.
Service and Products comprised 74% and 26% of
the total Cement order intake in 9M 2024,
respectively, compared to 62% and 38% in 9M
2023.