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Annual Report & Accounts 2022 PREMIER MITON GLOBAL RENEWABLES TRUST PLC
Investment Manager’s Report
for the year to 31 December 2022
Performance overview
The Premier Miton Global Renewables Trust’s (“PMGR”) portfolio
experienced a fall in value over the year, with a negative total
assets total return performance, including all operating and
trading costs, of 7.3%. The performance was below that of the
Trust’s comparator benchmark, but performance does remain
comfortably ahead of that index since the investment policy
change in October 2020.
Under normal conditions, I would have hoped for another good
year for PMGR. The build out of renewable energy continues
apace, power prices are strong, and there is a considerable level
of political goodwill.
However, higher interest rates, political intervention, additional
taxes, the ongoing uncertainty from the war in Ukraine, and
economic and political risks in China meant that it turned out
to be a rather difficult year. In addition, there have been some
stock-specific losses, detailed below.
Higher power prices have been a double-edged sword in that
they have driven greater political intervention through windfall
taxes. Asymmetric taxes, whereby Governments help themselves
to gains in good times without committing to helping companies
should the situation reverse, may make for good politics but have
caused investor uncertainty and are likely to increase companies’
required future returns to compensate for greater political risks.
Reversing the trend of recent years, capital costs of renewable
projects were increased by higher logistics and component costs,
although these are now showing signs of moderating. Finance
costs within the sector are largely fixed, but higher interest
rates will contribute to higher financing costs for new projects.
Fortunately, the power price environment is such that available
investment returns remain healthy.
Market review
Perhaps the most significant market development during the year
has been the unprecedented increase in European power prices.
Prices began to increase in mid-2021 on the back of higher prices
for carbon emission permits (which make fossil fuel generation
more expensive), increasing further over the early part of 2022
on concerns over low European gas storage levels, followed by
a surge in both price and volatility on the Russian invasion of
Ukraine in February.
Approximately one third of European gas is sourced from Russia,
and although trade has not completely stopped, volumes are
much reduced. Further, in September, both Nord Stream 1 and 2
pipelines, which connect Germany to Russian supplies through
the Baltic Sea, were damaged by explosions. Although those
responsible and their motivations are unconfirmed, neither
pipeline will be in use for the foreseeable future. Gas is an
important component of the European electricity generation
mix, and the resulting higher gas prices have fed directly into
higher electricity prices.
With the aim of ending its dependence on Russian fossil fuels,
the EU through its “REPowerEU” plan, aims to expand renewable
energy generation capacity substantially with streamlined
approval processes, diversify its gas supplies including new
investments in LNG capacity, and improve energy efficiency.
Newer technologies that directly substitute gas usage, such as
biomethane, hydrogen, and heat pumps will also be encouraged.
Adding to the European energy shortage has been the decline
in output from French nuclear reactors, expected to be over
20% lower in 2022 than in 2021. France went from a position
of being an electricity exporter, to being an importer, with a
consequent tightening of neighbouring power markets such
as Germany and the UK.
Power prices in the US have increased, although to a lesser extent
than seen in Europe. In any case, renewable energy companies
in the US tend to be less exposed to merchant power pricing
than their European counterparts, with renewable power usually
being sold on long term contracts at relatively fixed prices. This
has made them vulnerable to higher inflation and interest rates.
On the plus side, the passing of the of the Inflation Reduction Act
aims to stimulate almost $370 billion of clean energy investment
over the next 10 years, and gives the sector an improved growth
outlook.
Portfolio segmentation and allocation
The Trust seeks to offer investors a diversified global exposure to
renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure. This differentiates
PMGR from many other clean energy investment funds, including
exchange-traded funds, which often have a more technology-
oriented profile. I believe that focussing on mainly contracted
and regulated infrastructure investments offers an attractive risk /
reward dynamic for long term investment, offering high visibility
of earnings and dividends.
The portfolio has a wide exposure to differing sub-sectors, aiming
to invest not just in wind and solar assets, but in the full energy
production and delivery value chain, including energy storage,
electricity transmission networks and utilities that own high quality
renewable energy businesses.
One important distinction we make is to segment renewable
energy companies into two broad categories. Renewable energy
developers plan, construct, and then own and operate renewable
assets. Alternatively, yield companies (“yieldcos”), usually acquire
existing renewable assets. Developers typically pay a modest
dividend, retaining a high portion of cash flows for reinvestment,
sometimes recycling capital through asset sales. Yieldcos by
contrast, pay out the majority of cash flows, raising new capital
to acquire assets as required.